Satellite images released alongside the statement show that structures visible on March 1, including long assembly halls and support buildings at the Karaj plant, were reduced to rubble by March 11, with several buildings collapsing entirely.
The extent of the damage suggests the facility is no longer operational. The strikes appeared to be precisely targeted, with no visible impact beyond the site in the available frames.
The development comes amid a broader US campaign against Iran that includes counter-proliferation strikes, maritime security operations, and cyber and electronic warfare efforts, along with coordination with allies to dismantle Iran’s fighting capabilities. As part of these operations, the US has also deployed B-1 bombers, using 5,000-pound munitions to target threats to commercial shipping in the Strait of Hormuz.The strategic waterway, which handles around 20% of global oil shipments, has been affected by the ongoing conflict. Several countries, including the UK, France, the Netherlands, Italy and Japan, have indicated their willingness to support efforts aimed at ensuring freedom of navigation in the region.Military assessments based on open-source data suggest Iran’s missile launch capacity has declined significantly since late February. Estimates indicate cumulative launches of around 1,100 to 1,700 missiles, with an initial surge of over 400 on the first day, followed by a drop of 86–94% by early March to low daily figures, according to Gulf news. Analysts say the reduction points to a “harassment-level” capability, with sporadic missile launches likely constrained by a reduced number of operational launchers and degraded production capacity. Continued US and Israeli air operations are seen as contributing to this decline.However, risks remain. Iran is believed to retain a dispersed network of facilities and capabilities, including proxy forces and cyber tools, which could be used in response below the level of conventional warfare.Meanwhile, Israel launched fresh strikes on Tehran early Friday following overnight missile fire from Iran. The Israeli military said its forces had “begun a wave of strikes targeting infrastructure of the Iranian terror regime across Tehran,” without providing further details, reported AFP.Officials caution that these assessments are based on publicly available information and may be affected by the “fog of war,” meaning actual figures could vary. Nonetheless, current trends indicate a continued degradation in Iran’s missile capabilities unless there is a pause in hostilities.
