The first signs appeared quietly last spring. The Trump administration moved to cancel visas and deport dozens of international students across the country, including a handful enrolled at the University of Wisconsin–Madison.The cancellations were later reversed. But the episode triggered alarm inside university administrations that depend heavily on students from abroad. At Wisconsin, where roughly 8,000 students or about 15% of enrolment is international, the prospect of sudden removals forced administrators into contingency planning. Frances Vavrus, dean of the international division, told The New York Times that within weeks the university began running tabletop exercises to assess the financial impact of a sharp decline in international enrolment. International undergraduates often pay full tuition.The exercises continued through the summer. Even after the immediate crisis passed, officials met weekly to track visa developments and prepare for further disruptions, according to reporting by the New York Times.
A year of crisis management
Across the country, universities spent the past year in a similar posture. The Trump administration introduced tighter visa scrutiny, expanded social media vetting, revived travel restrictions for certain countries and cut federal research funding. Graduate admissions were reduced in response, including for international applicants.At Wisconsin, the effects became visible by fall. New international undergraduate enrolment dropped by 25% from the previous year. New international graduate enrolment fell by more than 27%. Nationally, universities reported a 17% decline in new international students last fall, according to figures cited by the New York Times.
From cultural exchange to financial pillar
International education in the United States began decades ago as a vehicle for cultural exchange. Over time, it became a financial pillar. Full-fee-paying international students help offset declining state funding and support research capacity, particularly in science and technology.Chinese students have played a central role in that system. They remain the largest international group at Wisconsin and until recently nationwide. But visa uncertainty has begun to reshape individual decisions.
Choosing risk, year by year
Sidi Liu, 23, nearly accepted a doctoral offer in Switzerland last spring before choosing Wisconsin, according to the New York Times. Raised in China, Liu studies the movement of polar icebergs, a field with implications for Arctic shipping. Wisconsin offered stronger academic support. The visa risk remained.She has settled into campus life and joined student groups. But she plans year by year. Airport passport checks still make her anxious. She has arranged a backup plan with her supervisor in case funding or visa status changes. “It’s almost like a mindset of gambling,” Liu told the New York Times. “Currently, I’m still winning, but I can’t foresee the future.”
Mixed signals from Washington
The uncertainty is reinforced by mixed signals from President Donald Trump. He has argued that international students displace American applicants and has supported deportations for reasons ranging from campus protests to minor legal violations. He has also warned that halving international enrolment would “destroy our entire university and college system” and suggested the US could admit more Chinese students.Even if restrictions ease, the long-term damage may persist. Chinese enrolment in the US has declined steadily since peaking in 2019. “The reality is that China’s best and the brightest are not coming but leaving,” Yingyi Ma, a sociologist at Syracuse University, told the New York Times.
Universities built on international fees
Public research universities have increasingly relied on international students to compensate for state funding cuts. At more than 50 US institutions, international students account for at least 10% of undergraduates. Wisconsin expanded international recruitment after the 2008 financial crisis and a 2015 tuition freeze imposed by former governor Scott Walker.By last year, international students made up about 10% of Wisconsin’s undergraduate population, paying nearly three and a half times the tuition of in-state students. University officials have noted that despite the drop in new enrolments, overall international numbers declined by only 6% and remain higher than a decade ago. Still, the university announced a 5% budget cut in June, citing uncertainty around future international enrolment.
Economic and research fallout
The consequences extend beyond campuses. International students contributed nearly $400 million to the local economy around Madison in 2024, according to a report cited by the New York Times. A sustained decline could also weaken the research workforce.Karu Sankaralingam, a computer science professor at Wisconsin, told the New York Times that he stopped recruiting graduate students from China five years ago due to geopolitical sensitivities around advanced chip research. Last year, following university guidance, he paused graduate recruitment altogether. In 2024, 57% of computer science doctoral graduates in the US were on temporary visas, according to National Science Foundation data referenced by the newspaper. “We are intentionally hamstringing ourselves,” Sankaralingam said.
Recalculating the future
For students nearing graduation, choices are shifting. Junda Li, a doctoral candidate in political science at Wisconsin, told the New York Times that returning to China now appears simpler than staying in the US. Visa restrictions have tipped the balance.America remains a destination for international study. But for many students, it is no longer the default. Decisions are being made semester by semester, visa by visa, shaped less by academic aspiration than by risk management.
