Israel is increasingly concerned that new understandings reached between the United States and Iran could effectively legitimise Tehran’s influence in Lebanon. The emerging agreement between MAGA supremo Donald Trump and Iranian officials could also limit Israel’s ability to operate militarily against Hezbollah, according to an Axios report citing Israeli sources.The diplomatic engagement comes after months of military escalation and a full-scale conflict in the Gulf. But even as Washington and Tehran seek to stabilise relations, officials in Jerusalem fear the talks could reshape the security landscape in Lebanon in ways that favour Iran and constrain Israel’s freedom of action.The concerns stem from agreements reached during recent US-Iran talks in Switzerland and a memorandum of understanding signed last week. Israeli officials believe Iran successfully brought Lebanon into the broader negotiations, securing protections for its ally Hezbollah at a time when Israel has spent months trying to weaken the group and reduce Tehran’s influence in the country.According to Axios, Israeli officials fear the new framework could result in increased scrutiny from Washington every time Israel seeks to carry out strikes in Lebanon. They are also wary of potential pressure from US President Donald Trump to withdraw Israeli forces from southern Lebanon before what they see as the Hezbollah threat has been fully addressed.The US-Iran memorandum reportedly commits both countries and their allies to ending hostilities, including in Lebanon, and to preserving the country’s territorial integrity and sovereignty. Several rounds of fighting followed the agreement, but a renewed ceasefire has largely held since Saturday.Iran had previously threatened to close the Strait of Hormuz and boycott the Switzerland negotiations if Israeli attacks continued. Once talks began, Lebanon emerged as a key issue. The parties reportedly agreed to establish a new “deconfliction cell” involving Lebanon and mediators from Pakistan and Qatar to help maintain the ceasefire.Israeli sources told Axios that the arrangement weakens understandings reached with the Biden administration in late 2024. Under the November 2024 ceasefire agreement, Israel retained the right to act against both imminent and emerging Hezbollah threats. Under the new conditions, Israeli officials believe their operational freedom may be restricted largely to imminent threats.They are also troubled by the structure of the new mechanism. While the earlier ceasefire-monitoring framework included Israel, Lebanon, the United States and France, the new arrangement reportedly includes Iran but not Israel as a direct participant. In addition, the previous mechanism focused on dismantling Hezbollah’s military infrastructure in southern Lebanon, whereas the new one is designed primarily to prevent clashes between Israeli forces and Hezbollah.Axios reported that while Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu remains concerned about the nuclear aspects of the US-Iran agreement, the Lebanon provisions are currently causing greater anxiety within his government.One reason is domestic politics. Israel’s campaign against Hezbollah remains a major issue ahead of October’s elections.“Bibi is hysterical about it,” one Israeli source told Axios, referring to Netanyahu by his nickname.According to the report, Netanyahu recently asked his close confidant Ron Dermer to use his ties within Trump’s circle to influence discussions on Lebanon. The same source claimed Dermer’s efforts contributed to a Truth Social post in which Trump threatened action against Iran if it failed to restrain Hezbollah.A US official confirmed to Axios that Dermer had been involved and said American negotiators briefed him several times during the talks in Switzerland.“We were transparent with them,” the official said.On the Lebanese side, President Joseph Aoun is reportedly open to the new mechanism as long as the United States remains at its centre. Axios reported that Vice President JD Vance and Trump’s envoy Jared Kushner briefed Aoun on the arrangement during a phone call on Monday.American officials have sought to reassure Israel that the new framework does not sideline its interests.“Israel is not out of the mechanism, because the US is in the mechanism. We are so close and coordinated that a direct channel between the US and Iran over Lebanon will only benefit Israel,” a senior US official told Axios.Not everyone in Washington is convinced. Senator Lindsey Graham, one of Netanyahu’s closest allies in Congress, criticised the initiative.“The deconfliction mechanism in Lebanon envisioned by the Trump administration doesn’t include Israel and in my view is a major misstep,” Graham told Axios.On Monday, Netanyahu issued a joint statement with defence minister Israel Katz and Israel defense forces chief of staff Gen. Eyal Zamir, declaring that the military would continue “to act decisively to neutralize threats to our soldiers and citizens, destroy terrorist infrastructure, and maintain the security zone in southern Lebanon.”Notably, the statement stopped short of asserting that Israel retained full freedom of action inside Lebanon.Asked about Netanyahu’s concerns, Trump responded: “I’m a problem solver, I get problems solved real fast — including with Bibi.”Another round of direct Israel-Lebanon talks is expected at the US state department, with secretary of State Marco Rubio mediating. Discussions are focused on a possible phased Israeli withdrawal from parts of southern Lebanon in exchange for deployment of the Lebanese army to prevent Hezbollah from rebuilding its presence.Graham argued that the new US-Iran understandings could complicate those efforts.“To expect anyone to reach an agreement between Israel and Lebanon at the same time that Iran is demanding Lebanon be included in its own negotiations with the US is highly unrealistic,” he said.The senior US official disagreed, telling Axios that Rubio’s team was fully informed about the new arrangement and arguing that it could reduce tensions and create better conditions for diplomacy.“It creates bigger opportunity for the Israel-Lebanon talks to succeed. If Israel and Lebanon work together and get a deal they will have a stronger hand to get Hezbollah to disarm,” the official said.For now, however, the prospect of a comprehensive Israel-Lebanon agreement that results in Hezbollah’s disarmament appears distant, underscoring the challenge facing diplomats even as the ceasefire largely holds.
